Undergraduate Course: Natural Hazards and Risk (EASC11008)
Course Outline
| School | School of Geosciences |
College | College of Science and Engineering |
| Credit level (Normal year taken) | SCQF Level 11 (Year 5 Undergraduate) |
Availability | Available to all students |
| SCQF Credits | 20 |
ECTS Credits | 10 |
| Summary | A comprehensive introduction to Natural Hazards and Risk at Honours level 11 open to final year undergraduate or undergraduate masters students. The first part of the course is concerned with fundamentals of measurement and observation, the relevant principles of probability and statistics, the quantification of uncertainty and handling of extreme events. The second part concentrates on applications in forecasting hazards, using earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, climate, extreme weather and flooding events as exemplars. The final part includes assessment of vulnerability and risk, and societal issues such as planning, resilience-building, and disaster risk reduction in a social context, including a seminar you will present as part of a group on a case study of your choice. This part of the course addresses UN Sustainable development goals 11 Make cities and human settlements inclusive, safe, resilient and sustainable and 13 Take urgent action to combat climate change and its impacts respectively. See - https://sdgs.un.org/goals |
| Course description |
This is a quantitative 'applications' course- building on the generic skills taught in the Junior Honours programmes. Students are introduced to a range of natural hazards and risks, including the underpinning science, the necessary statistical analysis, and issues of forecasting and decision-making under uncertainty in a societal context. The course is fundamentally multi-disciplinary, and is taught by staff with strong research interests in these topics, including the interface with wider society. It will open up significant new research and career opportunities for course graduates in Environmental Risk Assessment, Management and Mitigation, as well as providing a basis for a career that addresses risk in a more general context.
Semester 1
Lectures
PART I: Probability and Statistics of Risk
Week 1: Introduction - Definitions, quantification of hazard, global context (multi-hazards) natural variability, stationary and non-stationary processes
Week 2: Break for Geophysics field trip
Week 3: Measurement and observation (Ian Main) Digital, analogue, historical and palaeo-data, calibration, use of proxies, uncertainty quantification
Week 4: Statistics Stochastic processes, sampling, model testing, epistemic and aleatory uncertainty
Week 5: Extreme events Formal analysis of extremes, with examples of past data. Outliers or part of the trend?
PART II: Applications
Week 6: Weather hazards Heat waves, drought, floods.
Week 7: Forecasting of Volcanic eruptions - Probabilistic assessment of volcanic activity and hazards
Week 8: Earthquake and Tsunami Forecasting - Long, intermediate and short-term forecasting, early warning.
Week 9: Climate change and extremes Climate change, including sea-level rise, frequency of storms, heat-waves.
Tutorials
Week 1: A walk up Blackford hill by the whole class together, to envisage and discuss extreme weather and volcanic events in Edinburgh. Meet in the car park in front of the Grant Institute, James Hutton Road, Kings Buildings (all course team members).
Weeks 3-10: Exercises based on lecture material provided during the preceding teaching week, to be run by Demonstrators.
Week 11: Revision tutorial for end of term exam on parts I and II.
For weeks 3-11 the class will be split into two groups with one tutor each.
Semester 2
Lectures
Part III: Societal issues and Risk management
Week 1: Society: Vulnerability and exposure - Infrastructure, new sources of data, resilience, mitigation and regulation, cultural aspects
Week 2: Risk quantification, management and communication - Risk Measurement is not Risk Management - issues in the practical application of risk management, including communication of risk and comparative risk
Week 7: Seminar and discussion (with guest lecturer). An inspiring presentation and discussion on risk research and management from a multi-hazards perspective. The material will be relevant for the essay title. This will be followed by an open discussion on the lecture and career options in this field. All staff/ demonstrators and students are strongly encouraged to attend.
Tutorials
Week 1: Introduction to the student presentations
Week 2: On society: vulnerability and exposure
Week 6. Introduction to the assessed essay
Compulsory Exercises (semester 2)
Week 3: Workshop on risk quantification (summative)
Week 4: Student Seminars: Oral presentation on a case study natural event (Formative, but with up to 4% mark for peer-assessed level of contribution only. Staff and peer feedback on the presentation, but no mark for its quality. Presentations are made by groups of ~3 students (formative)
Week 5: Computer lab practical on Extreme meteorological events ¿ case study of drought, flood or heat waves (summative)
Weeks 6-10: Preparation for Assessed essay on science-based disaster risk reduction (Assessed, 23% of total mark (summative)
The weeks 3 and 5 exercises are assessed in a single joint report worth 23% of the total course mark.
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Information for Visiting Students
| Pre-requisites | None |
| High Demand Course? |
Yes |
Course Delivery Information
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| Academic year 2026/27, Available to all students (SV1)
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Quota: 40 |
| Course Start |
Full Year |
Timetable |
Timetable |
| Learning and Teaching activities (Further Info) |
Total Hours:
200
(
Programme Level Learning and Teaching Hours 4,
Directed Learning and Independent Learning Hours
196 )
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| Assessment (Further Info) |
Written Exam
50 %,
Coursework
50 %,
Practical Exam
0 %
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| Additional Information (Assessment) |
Assessment details
Semester 1: Exam 50%
Semester 2: Assessed practical exercise 23%; Essay: 23%; Formative presentation:4%.
1) Written Exam, covering parts 1 and 2 of the course
2) Formative Oral presentation on a 'specific historical natural disaster', to be chosen by the students and delivered in small groups. Students receive a small mark from peers based on levels of effort in this group exercise.
3) Assessed joint exercise on 'Analysis of extreme weather events' and 'risk estimation'.
4) An essay on disaster risk reduction, based in part on an inspiring presentation and discussion by an invited external speaker.
Feedback for test 1 as in text and summary feedback. Feedback on exercise 2 from staff and fellow students on feedback sheets sent out within one week. For exercise 3 and the assessed essay 4, the submission date for the report/essay will be 12 noon, two weeks after the exercise is completed or the essay is submitted.
Assessment deadlines
Oral Presentations: (Formative) Case Study event - Semester 2, Week 4
Practical Exercise: (Assessed) Extreme Meteorological Events - Semester 2, Friday, Week 7, (Turnitin)
Set Essay: (Assessed) Disaster Risk reduction in Volcanology - Semester 2, Friday, Week 10, (Turintin)
Students must attain an overall mark of 40% (or above) to pass the course.
AI usage Statement:
AI-Assisted Generation
We expect you to return work that is your own, and that you would be happy to defend in a discussion. AI tools may be used to identify ideas, key themes, and plan your assessment, but not to generate content. If you use AI, you must acknowledge it in your submission.
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| Feedback |
1) Exam in December exam diet. Feedback will be provided by annotation of the exam scripts.
2) Oral presentation. Feedback sheets will be given out at the start of each presentation and completed by peers in the class and the course lecturers. The course organiser will collate and go through these individually with the students.
3) Assessed exercise. The Met/Climate lead (shared with allied discipline staff if the class is large) will provide detailed written feedback, and demonstrators support students during the computational part of the assessment.
4) Assessed essay. Detailed feedback will be given to the student, again with marking and feedback shared between the course team.
The marking for all coursework and exam material will be moderated.
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| Exam Information |
| Exam Diet |
Paper Name |
Minutes |
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| Main Exam Diet S1 (December) | Natural Hazards and Risk | 100 | |
Learning Outcomes
On completion of this course, the student will be able to:
- Understand the science and statistics underpinning natural hazard estimation.
- Estimate hazard and risk quantitatively, incorporating all sources of uncertainty.
- Demonstrate practical skills in data analysis, integration and interpretation in hazard and risk applications.
- Understand societal issues affecting vulnerability, risk and resilience, and disaster risk reduction.
- Have a capacity for a professional career in risk quantification and management.
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Reading List
Bryant, EA, 1993. Natural Hazards. Cambridge
Keller, EA & RH Blodgett, 2006. Natural Hazards, Pearson Prentice Hall
Not, J., 2006. Extreme events, Cambridge
Woo, G., 2011. Calculating Catastrophe
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Additional Information
| Graduate Attributes and Skills |
Not entered |
| Keywords | Natural Hazards,Risks,Disaster Risk Reduction |
Contacts
| Course organiser | Prof Ian Main
Tel: (0131 6)50 4911
Email: Ian.Main@ed.ac.uk |
Course secretary | Miss Sarah Jones
Tel:
Email: sarah.jones@ed.ac.uk |
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