Business Forecasting (BS0053)

? Credit Points : 10 ? SCQF Level : 11 ? Acronym : MSE-P-BS0053

The purpose of this course is to provide students with the concepts, tools, and methods of forecasting as well as some hands-on experience in applying these concepts and using these tools and methods to address cases drawn from real life situations. The majority of class sessions will involve lectures dealing with theory and applications of forecasting; however, at the end of each major section of the course, several case studies will be used to show the practical application of the concepts being discussed and some of the difficulties encountered in their implementation. Software packages will be used to enable students to focus on the modeling, analysis and solution of forecasting problems rather than the application of the techniques themselves. The content of this course is organised as follows:

1.Introduction to the field of forecasting;
2.Basic forecasting tools;
3.Time-series models for forecasting;
4.Causal forecasting models;
5.Box-Jenkins methodology;
6.Use of forecasting methods in practice, implementation issues, and forecasting resources.

This course responds to the increasing need of future managers working in a global and very competitive economy to acquire forecasting literacy and competence. Next to this very practice oriented objective, the course also reflects the increasing importance of forecasting within all areas of management. In fact, nowadays the success of organisations depends on the ability of their managers to react quickly to changing conditions in their external environments as well as their ability to foresee the future with a relatively high degree of accuracy; otherwise they are condemned to disappear! Needless to say that if managers can get the forecast right, they have the potential to get everything else right; else everything they do will essentially be reactive, as opposed to proactive planning.

Entry Requirements

? This course is not available to visting students.

? Pre-requisites : PGs Only

Subject Areas

Home subject area

Business Studies, (Management School and Economics, Schedule H)

Delivery Information

? Normal year taken : Postgraduate

? Delivery Period : Semester 2 (Blocks 3-4)

? Contact Teaching Time : 2 hour(s) per week for 10 weeks

Summary of Intended Learning Outcomes

The intended learning outcomes are the understanding of (1) the role of a forecasting unit or department within the organisation, (2) how important accurate forecasts are in a decision-making process, and (2) the basic forecasting methods available within standard forecasting and statistical software packages. In sum, by the end of the term, course participants should be able to know when to forecast and how to forecast as accurately as possible!